I recently wrote an argument that we would never have a Generation X president in the United States.
[Read that argument here.]
It was a good argument if I do say so myself. But that was February 2024, and it is now July 22nd. And the premise has changed.
The crux of my argument was based on the Trump/Biden rematch and the fact that a massive segment of the American population was disappointed with these choices.
A recent Pew Research poll showed that 53% of American voters would replace both candidates if they could, and 63% described both candidates as “embarrassing”.
The fact that Trump and Biden are both quite old, I believe, has contributed to the quantity and quality of double-hatership amongst voters. I have argued that Americans will react to the election of 2024 by nominating only Millennial 40ish candidates in 2028, overlooking Generation X candidates in their 50s and 60s.
I made the following statement in my previous argument:
“It doesn’t seem like there is an escape hatch outside of death this time around. These are our choices and they are old. I think there is one thing we Americans tend to do in situations that seem to have gone too far in one direction. Swing the pendulum hard the other way.”
My argument was a solid one, but I was wrong about the escape hatch. The Democrats found one.
No Gen X Pres This Time….
Biden’s announcement was just made and I do not yet know how things will shake out. Kamala Harris is a likely frontrunner for the nomination, but guess what? She is not Gen X.
Harris was born in 1964. She’s a Boomer. A very young one, yes, but most resources will agree that Gen X are those born between 1965 and 1980.
[She actually falls into the Generation Jones micro-generation. You can read more about Gen Jones here.]
While there may be one or more challenges to Harris’ nomination, it seems the conversation has already shifted to a question of running mate. The Associated Press has suggested four leading contenders: Andy Beshear, Josh Shapiro, Mark Kelly, and Roy Cooper. Two Generation X, two Baby Boomers.
So essentially, the Silent Generation contender has dropped out, and the likely result is two Baby Boomers running against each other, each at opposite ends of the Boomer age range. One has selected a Millennial running mate, the other running mate is yet to be decided.
How does this change my argument? It doesn’t look like we will have a Generation X candidate, let alone President, this time around.
…..But Will We EVER?
I believe if Donald Trump is elected in 2024, my original argument will hold true. Joe Biden will end his presidential term in a state of startling and concerning feebleness at the age of 81. If that scenario is followed up by a similarly feeble end-of-term 82-year-old Trump, I think Americans will say enough is enough. They will swing that pendulum into a crowd of Millennials and elect whoever parkours over it.
But I think all that changes if Harris – assuming she is the nominee – wins the election. She will take the age card off the table for the time being and voters might just forget all about it.
Generation X will still have to compete with experienced Boomers and formidable Millennials. And for reasons I’ve previously laid out, they both might have the upper hand over Gen X for this highest executive position in the country.
But what I held as the biggest obstacle to a Gen X presidency, the age issue, the tendency for American voters to want the opposite of what they last had, may actually be neutralized with the results of 2024.
For now it looks extremely likely we will elect a Baby Boomer for the 5th time while the Millennials are itching for their time to take charge. If Gen X doesn’t make their move, they’re going to get squeezed out.
Maybe Generation X is fine with that. Maybe we shouldn’t be.
[Five Baby Boomer Presidents! Does that seem like a lot? Check out this list of U.S. Presidents by generation here.]
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Oh, you know I’ll write another update on this subject. Stay tuned.